WCF Preview
May 6th, 2008 by BradAs Stars fans start turning their attention from past to future, it starts to become pretty clear what a large dog the Stars are in this series. When you take a look at the match ups, where exactly can the Stars find an edge? Offense? nope. Defense? nope. Goal tending?…maybe so, but only just a little one.
The Stars have 360 shots in 12 games for an average of: 30 per game. This is with a quadruple OT included. The real number is more like 27 per 3 periods.
The Wings have 393 shots in 10 games for an average of: 39.3
That’s about 10+ a game to the Red Wings, and it shows in the goals per game average, a 3.8 to 2.91 edge for the Wings.
That age old adage of 10 shots = a goal in the NHL holds pretty true there. How can the Stars limit the Wings shots? Even if Marty continues to save .929 of the shots, that’s still going to be about 2.8 goal per game for the Wings. Marty Turco will have to be even better this series than he has in the last 2 to give his team a chance. The rookie heavy defense of the Stars must limit opportunities for the Wings, and try to keep them to the perimeter of the ice while they have the puck, which is usually about 80% of the time when these teams play.
There are some who think the way to beat the Wings is to rough them up a little bit. The Stars have seen that show before. The Ducks tried it and now they’re ogling the beer girl. That will only get the Stars in the box, which is the thing they have to avoid above all else this series.
Then there is the matter of Marty’s history at the Joe. He has never won there. Ever. Not even once. He has a couple of ties…hooray.
The Wings beat you because they are good defensively, they always score on the power play, and their top offensive line is also their top defensive line. The Stars best offensive line is also one of their worst defensive lines. So if Detroit gets the match ups they want in games 1 and 2, Datsyuk and Zetterberg will be taking possession of the puck away from Ribeiro and Morrow, while making them work on the defensive end. That puts a lot of pressure on Richards and Modano to help offensively, and with Zetterberg and Datsyuk taking care of Ribs/Morrow, they can keep Lidstrom or whoever they want on defense against the Richards line.
They don’t play the games on paper though. Marty Turco and Brenden Morrow have a fire in their eyes. They have to spark their team to overachieve. We’re surprised they’ve come this far, and so proud of them.
Put all this together and I’m left with the extremely homer-ish prediction of Wings in 6, because thinking the Stars can win 2 games might be a bit of a stretch.
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